Australian listed gold miners reap rush benefits

Local gold miners listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) are set to reap the benefits of the gold price surge, with their value already increasing more than threefold since early 2024.

According to Tim Carleton, Chief Investment Officer at Auscap Asset Management, the value of gold companies listed on the ASX has grown from $45 billion in 2024 to $146 billion today.

This demand for gold has been driven by a convergence of central bank reserve stocking-up and investor buying, with over 60 per cent of gold purchases in the first six months of 2025 for investment purposes.

“The real winners from a gold price trading above US$4,000 an ounce should be the gold companies,” Carleton said.

“The current gold price should result in extraordinary profitability for Australian gold miners, with a very healthy return on capital and strong cash generation.

“Should it continue Australian investors, and Australia more broadly, should be a significant beneficiary. So far, the move in the gold price has been extraordinary. The yellow metal has gained US$1,000 (32 per cent) in less than two months to 17 October and US$2,500 (141 per cent) in the past two years. Since the end of 2015, the gold price has gained over 318 per cent to its recent peak of US$4,381.

“This gold rush is, in other words, being driven by investors. Importantly, that could support the gold price, as there is a strong correlation between the percentage of total gold demand driven by private investment plus central bank demand and the gold price.

“There are multiple reasons given for central bank and investor demand, including diversifying away from the US dollar, a hedge against inflation, a hedge against other asset classes and US dollar weakness to name but a few,” Carleton said.

Carleton also cited gold’s positive impacts on Australian trade, with the precious metal expected to become the nation’s second-most valuable export after iron ore by overtaking LNG. According to the Department of Industry, Science and Resources’ Resources and Energy Quarterly publication in September, gold export earnings are projected to reach $60 billion in 2025-2026.

“There are now nine gold companies listed on the ASX with a market capitalisation of greater than $5 billion, which is up from two at the end of 2023.

“All of these companies now have a market capitalisation exceeding that of companies such as Penfolds-owner Treasury Wines, regional lender Bank of Queensland and global industrial and medical glove manufacturer Ansell. All of this is a function of the strong gains in the gold price.

“The surge in the gold price is proving a boon for Australia’s terms of trade, with gold at current prices likely surpassing both LNG and coal to become Australia’s second-largest export after iron ore. Australia’s fortune in benefitting from almost every commodity boom helps boost Federal and State government coffers.

“We expect domestic production to expand significantly over coming years, with both an expansion in the current operations of existing gold miners and the development of numerous additional gold mines. The Minerals Council of Australia has suggested that output is anticipated to rise to 369 tonnes in FY2026-27, which would be only marginally below China’s output in 2024.”