Budget surplus but for how long?

Mike Taylor

Managing Editor/Publisher, Financial Newswire

9 May 2023

The Government has, as predicted, delivered a modest surplus but it has acknowledged that it may prove to be short-lived.

In a statement accompanying the Budget, the Treasurer, Jim Chalmers said the Budget was forecastinga small budget surplus in 2022‑23, “ahead of most major advanced economies, and lower deficits and debt over each year of the forward estimates compared with the October Budget”.

The statement said:

“The Government is:

• Returning 82 per cent of revenue upgrades to the bottom line in this Budget, with 87 per cent across both Budgets.
• Making a further $17.8 billion in savings and spending reprioritisations, a total of $40 billion across both Budgets.
• Limiting annual growth in real payments to 0.6 per cent on average over the 5 years to 2026‑27.

The forecast surplus in 2022‑23 of $4.2 billion (0.2 per cent of GDP) is a dramatic turnaround from the $77.9 billion deficit we inherited from the previous government.

The Budget forecasts a deficit of $13.9 billion (0.5 per cent of GDP) in 2023‑24, an improvement of $42.6 billion since we came to Government.

Gross debt as a share of the economy is now expected to peak lower at 36.5 per cent of GDP in 2025‑26, where it will be $154 billion lower than projected in the Coalition’s March 2022‑23 Budget.

By returning the majority of revenue upgrades to the Budget, the Government is lowering debt and reducing debt interest costs. This improves gross debt by almost $300 billion by 2033‑34, saving $83 billion in interest costs over the 12 years to 2033‑34.

This approach is delivering a stronger and more sustainable fiscal position and has been achieved while also providing responsible cost‑of‑living relief, investing in a stronger and more secure economy, and funding the critical services Australians rely on.

The Albanese Government’s responsible budget plan is improving the strength and sustainability of the nation’s finances and building stronger foundations for a better future.