Economists firm on February rate cut

The Government may get its wish of an interest rate cut before the upcoming Federal Election, with market economists pointing to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data as providing the right environment for the Reserve Bank.

Betashares chief economist, David Bassanese said the December quarter trimmed mean annual inflation rate had materially surprised on the downside relative to Reserve Bank expectations.

Annual mean inflation fell to 3.2% with Bassanese saying this was notably lower than the RBA’s November expectation of 3.4%.

“There’s now a good chance trimmed mean ‘underlying’ inflation could fall back to within the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target band by June, rather than the RBA’s current expectation of December.

“As a result – and despite still solid employment growth – there’s no question the economy deserves an interest rate cut to ease the restrictiveness of current policy settings,” Bassanese said.  “I anticipate the Reserve Bank will welcome these inflation results and reward hard pressed households and mortgage holders with an interest rate cut at the February 17-18 policy meeting.”

His sentiments were echoed by Bendigo Bank chief economist, David Robertson who said the data “opens the door for a February rate cut and validates our forecast of three cuts in 2025”.

State Street Global Advisors APAC economist, Krishna Bhimavarapu said not only did the RBA’s preferred inflation metric (trimmed mean CPI) come in line with SSGA’s below-the-market forecast, it is now also the lowest in 12 quarters.

“This should confirm the first rate cut next month and make it consensus. The key question now is when will economic growth improve?”