“Goldilocks” environment awaits investors in 2026: Ninety One

Yasmine Raso

Senior Journalist, Financial Newswire

13 January 2026

Global investment manager, Ninety One, has urged investors to prepare for an investment landscape characterised by “unexpectedly balanced” conditions in 2026, amid stronger growth and signs of disinflation. 

Philip Saunders, Director of the firm’s Investment Institute, said this “Goldilocks” environment for the year ahead will feature market conditions that are both “not too hot [and] not too cold”, with growth positioned as the “dominant driver”.

“After a disorienting period for markets, investors may find that 2026 feels unexpectedly balanced. We expect… firm real growth, falling inflation and improved earnings visibility across regions,” he said.

“But this outcome still requires thoughtful positioning. This is not a year to rely on a single narrative; it’s a year to be selective and diversified.”

Fellow Investment Institute Director, Sahil Mahtani, also noted that a market “recalibration” could be on the cards, related to both the permanence of artificial intelligence (AI) and the impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions.

“We see global growth running above trend at more than 3% in real terms,” he said.

“Policy easing from 2025 is feeding through, labour markets remain tighter than headlines suggest, and inflation continues to trend lower across major economies. This combination points to a relatively supportive environment for risk assets.”

“There is a lot of talk about an AI bubble. But what we are more likely to see is a healthy recalibration, not a collapse. Usage continues to explode, efficiencies are improving, and investors are becoming more discerning.

“AI remains a powerful driver of productivity, but 2026 is about earnings delivery rather than storytelling.

“Despite events in Venezuela and Iran, geopolitical risk likely peaked in 2025, with the US and China entering a pragmatic phase of détente amid domestic economic priorities.

“While relations between China and Europe may come under renewed strain, particularly around trade and carbon-adjustment mechanisms, global tail risks are lower than they were a year ago.”

The fund manager also confirmed its outlook across several asset classes for the year ahead, including:

• Equities: “Global earnings remain solid, but stretched US valuations and concentration risk argue for a broadening of market leadership. International markets, along with cyclical, value and rate-sensitive sectors, are better positioned. Emerging markets hold particular appeal if the US dollar continues to weaken.”
• Fixed Income: “Developed market bonds offer reasonable value once again, with the potential to resume their traditional diversifying role. Emerging-market local bonds benefit from a combination of disinflation, elevated real yields and light foreign positioning.”
• Credit: “Public credit should stay resilient amid firmer growth, but more mainstream private credit markets will continue to be strained by leverage. A focus on quality issuance and specialist areas such as structured credit is appropriate. In private markets, less crowded markets such as EM offer a favourable risk profile.”
• Commodities: “Gold’s structural bull market endures, underpinned by central bank buying. Copper is expected to move into deficit as supply constraints meet rising demand from data-centre expansion and grid modernisation.”

“The world is still idiosyncratic, still fragmented, but also surprisingly resilient,” Mahtani said.

“For disciplined investors willing to look beyond noise and focus on fundamentals, 2026 could be a rewarding year.”