Investors warned against complacency over Iran crisis

Binaya Dahal

Editorial Intern, Financial Newswire

6 March 2026

Investors should not underestimate the risk of escalating conflict in the Middle East, with energy markets, inflation expectations, and global equities all exposed to a deeper shock, says deVere Group’s chief executive, Nigel Green.

The warning comes as Iran, triggered by US and Israeli strikes, has begun retaliatory attacks across the Gulf, heightening concerns over shipping near the Strait of Hormuz – the narrow passage carrying about 20% of global oil supply.

“The Middle East remains central to the global energy system. Should tensions involving Iran escalate, the economic implications will spread across energy markets, inflation and financial assets worldwide,” he said.

Green said markets appear complacent about the potential consequences and urged investors to review portfolio positioning before volatility intensifies.

“Investors appear to be assuming the conflict will remain limited and short-lived. Geopolitical shocks tied to global energy supply rarely unfold in such a tidy way,” he said.

He further said that while sectors exposed to rising oil costs may face significant pressure, energy producers and commodities often benefit when supply is threatened.

“Periods of geopolitical stress create both risks and opportunities. Energy prices are one of the fastest ways geopolitical tensions translate into economic pressure. When crude rises sharply, it pushes costs higher across supply chains,” Green said.

Oil markets have already reacted sharply, with Brent crude rising around 1.4% on Wednesday to roughly $82.50 a barrel after surging in the previous session.

Prices have climbed more than 12% in just a few days as traders assess the risk of a prolonged disruption to Middle East supply.

Green said the reaction of stock markets so far appears “restrained” given the scale of the geopolitical shock. However, Asian equities suffered some of the sharpest moves on Wednesday.

South Korea’s KOSPI index plunged more than 10% in a single session, wiping out roughly $430 billion in market value and marking its steepest fall since the global financial crisis.

Wall Street has also felt the pressure. The S&P 500 fell around 0.9% in the latest trading session and briefly touched its lowest level in more than three months before recovering part of the losses by the close.

The deVere CEO, whose firm advises on $14 billion in assets globally, believes recent market behaviour reflects a pattern that has developed over the past decade.

“Financial markets have become accustomed to geopolitical shocks fading quickly. This experience has created a degree of complacency in portfolio positioning,” he said.

Green warned investors that concentrated portfolios are particularly vulnerable during escalating geopolitical tensions; therefore, diversification remains critical.

“Investors who act early to strengthen portfolios place themselves in a far stronger position to safeguard and grow their wealth as geopolitical risk moves back to the centre of global markets,” he said.