Jump in US jobless claims not enough to delay rate cut

A surge in the number of unemployment benefits claims filed in the US last week has reignited inflation concerns, but not enough to shake market-wide expectations of a 25-basis-point cut to interest rates.

Jeff Schulze, Head of Economic and Market Strategy at Franklin Templeton subsidiary, ClearBridge Investments, said investors should still bear caution of an environment combining US jobless claims at their highest point in four years, 10-year Treasury yield below four per cent and a “larger-than-expected” rise in the consumer price index.

“This dynamic illustrates the Fed’s focus on the ‘maximum employment’ half of the dual mandate, with today’s inflation print not hot enough in our view to derail a 25 bps interest rate cuts at next week’s FOMC meeting,” he said.

“The passthrough of higher prices from tariffs continues to be gradual as goods prices overall accelerated, but a moderation in services helped keep core CPI at 0.3% for the month.

“While investors may cheer the prospect of rate cuts, if the pickup in initial jobless claims is sustained in the coming weeks, they may turn more cautious on the economic outlook.”