Private markets enters “new era” in H2 2025: PrimaryMarkets

Private markets are set to enter a “new era” in the second half of 2025 after learning several lessons from its “turbulent start” to the year, according to new commentary from PrimaryMarkets.

Jamie Green, Executive Chairman of the Complii Group subsidiary and unlisted shares trading platform, said several ‘themes’ have emerged including impact investing, valuation adjustments and growth of secondary trading that have driven a “recalibration” within private markets.

“The interest rate volatility has forced a recalibration. Founders are raising smaller rounds, with stricter terms and more focus on profitability,” he said.

“Venture firms have dry powder, but they’re deploying it slowly, with heightened scrutiny on business models and a sharper eye on governance.

“We’re seeing unprecedented interest in the secondary space. Investors want liquidity, and issuers are recognising the need for better transparency and engagement, even if they aren’t listed on a public exchange.”

Green suggested private markets should be approached with “cautious optimism” for the foreseeable future, given ongoing uncertainty with global monetary policy and investors look to turn to less risky and more defensive assets to buff up portfolios against market volatility.

The outlook also comes as the scrutiny on private markets instigated by Australia’s corporate regulator continues to escalate and the “debate over sophisticated investor eligibility is far from over”.

“The cost of capital will stay elevated, forcing businesses to prove capital efficiency and pursue sustainable growth. Equity investors will lean toward companies that can thrive without repeated capital injections, while debt transactions such as leveraged buyouts face stricter covenant demands and higher hurdle rates,” Green said.

“Fundraising, too, will remain selective. Experienced mid-market managers with clear sector specialisation and exit track records are likely to find support, while emerging strategies may struggle to secure commitments

“Advertising practices, disclosures and transparency will all come under sharper focus. Meanwhile, proposed changes to unrealised capital gains tax is sending waves across the private capital landscape, especially for long-hold assets.”

Despite such headwinds, Green also pointed out several factors continuing to intrigue investors, including themes of energy transition, clean tech, grid modernisation, digital infrastructure, healthcare, aged care and biotech.

“Alignment of interests, fee discipline, and deep sector knowledge are more critical than ever,” Green said.

“Institutional investors are being extremely selective. It’s not about spray-and-pray anymore but about precision targeting.

“Private markets are proving resilient by adapting. We’re seeing more structure, more discipline and a clearer path to long-term value creation. This is a pivotal moment and those who embrace the new rules of the game are going to lead the next cycle.”