RBA done and dusted with hiking cycle – for now: analysts

Yasmine Raso

Senior Journalist

15 June 2026

Despite the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) still battling too-high-for-comfort inflation figures, the market has firmly priced in a hold as the outcome of tomorrow’s monetary policy decision, as financial experts and economists say evidence is emerging that the previous three consecutive hikes are working to cool the economy.

According to a poll of experts run by online comparison site, Finder, all but one panellist said they expect the central bank to pause its hiking cycle tomorrow to provide enough time to assess the degree at which the economy has been impacted by the successive rate hikes implemented since the start of 2026.

Given there have been signs of softening growth and a weakening labour market, many experts confirmed these conditions would likely support the RBA taking a ‘wait-and-see’ approach when it comes to making their next monetary policy decision.

However, several analysts also indicated that this pause may only be temporary, with 55 per cent expecting another hike before the end of the year and 62 per cent of those believe it to arrive as early as August.

“After three hikes in a row, a pause will feel like a win for borrowers who’ve watched their repayments climb all year,” Richard Whitten, home loans expert at Finder, said.

“But the cash rate is still at its highest level in years, and more than half of our experts think there’s another hike still to come.”

In his tip towards a hold, AMP’s Chief Economist Shane Oliver noted that the RBA would be taking into account several factors at play, both domestically and internationally.

“The three RBA rate hikes this year have given the RBA some breathing space to wait and gauge the initial impact of the hikes and how the oil supply shock impacts,” he said.

“Recently softer data for consumer spending, jobs and house prices along with mixed inflation data for April add to the case for a pause on rate hikes at the June meeting.”

HSBC’s Paul Bloxham shared a similar sentiment, indicating that the “significant action” already taken by the RBA to address the inflationary ripple effect after the oil shocks and Middle East crisis is working.

“Growth has already slowed and there are strong indications in a range of timely measures that growth is set to weaken further yet. In addition to the shock from the RBA’s hikes, the economy has also been hit by the Middle East conflict shock and, more recently, the shock from the significant shifts in tax policy in the Federal budget.

“This combination has seen surveyed business and consumer confidence fall sharply in recent months, to be around the low levels reached in previous economic downturns. The fall in consumer sentiment aligns with a solid decline in consumer spending in April.

“Employment also fell in April and the unemployment rate jumped to a four-year high. More recently, auction clearance rates have fallen to the lowest levels in six years and national housing prices have declined too.

“After sluggish GDP growth of only 0.3% q-o-q in Q1, which was weaker than expected, the indicators above suggest that growth is likely to have weakened further in Q2. Our central case is that GDP will fall in Q2.”

Bloxham also confirmed HSBC’s base case for the next rate cuts to arrive from Q3 2027.

“For the RBA, the key to getting inflation back down sustainably to target is that aggregate demand moves back in line with aggregate supply, which we expect will require a period where growth in aggregate demand is weaker than growth in aggregate supply. Put another way, we expect that a negative output gap will be needed to get inflation back to target.

“A recent sharp fall in measured capacity utilisation, to 81.9% in May, which is its lowest level in 14 months, suggests the economy is heading towards a negative output gap.

“We expect the RBA to be on hold in June. Although there is some risk the RBA might choose to hike again beyond that, we expect the weakening in growth to convince them to be on hold.”